NordStream; Germany attacked

There are two separate stories about NordStream. Firstly the pipelines appear to have been deliberately damaged and put out of action permanently. Secondly, and more importantly, the USA has over the last months openly said they will stop Germany getting gas via NordStream2.

This article deals with the first of the two issues. Later you can read the partner article “NordStream2: Germany Owned”.

Sabotage

It is not realistic to assume three explosions on different parts of pipelines would all happen at the same time, let alone once! Additionally the seismic traces from Bornholm show something apparently akin to explosives and not a burst pipe.

Whoever attacked the pipelines attacked Germany and Russia alike. Only Germany and Russia could technically destroy this vital infrastructure without it being an act of war.

Why do I say permanently? I read a comment that the sea water corrodes the inside of the pipes faster than the repairs can be made. I have no method of judging this and have unfortunately lost the reference.

However I think it is a useful exercise to see what motivation each of the countries may have to cause this damage and review any public evidence available.

Russia

It really makes no sense for Russia to have damaged their own property. They already have the power to stop shipments of gas and have done so.

There have been some arguing that Russia wanted to get out of delivering gas and not have to pay compensation. The problem with that argument is that Germany will very shortly be supplying more arms to a country that has already attacked Russia. That alone, an act of war, is sufficient for force majeure to take effect.

Looking at the situation Putin appears to have hoped that at the end of Ukraine situation some sense of normality would be possible because he was calling for the final pumping parts to be delivered to bring Nordstream2 on line. Additionally just recently there have been reports that Scholz wanted to call Putin to discuss the situation. It would therefore be totally counter productive for Russia to have done this, especially at this time.

Germany

As I see it Germany could only be interested in the gas supply stopping in this way if it was necessary to legitimise the support for Ukraine. This depends upon the level of support this has within the general German population and within political circles.

There has been some disagreement with the government policy both politically and also within the electorate. Politically it has mostly centered around parties traditionally strong in the former DDR and a party focused on restoring full sovereignty. Citizens focus upon the economic hardships and costs for energy.

Germany is in a trap with Ukraine

Fundamentally Germany finds it difficult to ignore the freedoms it recovered after the second world war and appears to credit this exclusively to the United States and perhaps a little to NATO. However in addition to this, the support for Ukraine, a country that openly absorbs violent ethnic cleansing vigilante groups in their armies, cannot be the easiest thing for any German government to do. Add to this the importance of the energy from Russia both for the economy and the people and the balancing act is obvious.

It appears to me that Scholz, the German Chancellor has been walking a tightrope since the beginning and this situation has just made it far more difficult. It is therefore highly unlikely that the Germans would have willingly made their lives more hell; politically speaking.

Poland or Norway

On the same day as the explosions a new gas pipeline from Norway to Poland opened.

It has been postulated that Poland may have attacked NordStream to gain control of gas supplies to Europe and cash in on transit fees.

Poland does have several bones of contention with Germany at the moment. One relating to Ukraine and the other relating to the second world war.

The former concerns itself with Russian cold war tanks operated by Poland being sent to Ukraine in exchange for new German Panzer II tanks. The new tanks have not been delivered as I understand it even though they should have been. – The second issue is a long standing call by Poland that Germany should pay reparations for the war/holocaust victims. This issue raises its head every 10 years or so, often coinciding with heated debates at EU level, where Poland wants a different strategy than Germany.

• Recent addition: 4th Oct 2022: Reparations to Poland rearing its head again!

Still it is highly unlikely Poland would do anything like this. The ramifications if found out would be totally devastating to Poland. They are already under great pressure from the EU with regard to their judicial system being “apparently” incompatible with the EU according to Von der Leyen’s interpretation.

As for Norway this is just unthinkable as it is not compatible with their style nor their temperament.

United Kingdom

The United Kingdom government is in great difficulties and has worked hard to pander to all the American wishes in the vain hope for a trade deal post Brexit.

Certainly Britain has the technical ability to do such things.

It could be that Britain, not thinking, overheard a desire from America that the Nordstream pipelines are stopped and took it upon themselves to grant the wish. Much like a turbulent priest.

However no matter the madness in Westminster on the surface, sending in the proverbial gunboats is very rare as we learnt our lesson from Suez! Most unlikely.

United States

The American Government have done themselves no favours. They have openly declared on at least two occasions that it is their intention to “Stop NordStream” if Russia moves troops into Ukraine. Which the Russians did. It was not only clearly declared, but when pressed to clarify how, the answer was deliberately vague.

“Let me answer the first question first. [If Germany…] If Russia invades that means tanks or troops crossing […] the border of Ukraine, again, then [there will be …] there will no longer a NordStream2. We will bring an end to it!”.

President Biden, United States of America

“With regard to NordStream2, we continue to have a very strong and clear conversations with our German allies and I want to be clear with you today. If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another NordStream2 will not move forward”

Victoria Nuland, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, US Department of State

In addition to these clear positioning statements that the United States government would stop NordStream2, there were also US warships in the area of the explosions on the gas pipelines.

14th June 2022 as part of the BALTOPS 22 US Naval Divers for underwater mine disposal were exercising off the island of Bornholm. The same place where the explosions took place.

The original article:

Seapower Magazine: BALTOPS 22: A Perfect Opportunity for Research and Resting New Technology

So in effect even if the US warships in the vicinity are a coincidence, it is clear that the United States by their own admission had the intent to render NordStream out of action anyway.

Indignation on the part of the United States government is more likely to be as a consequence of the implications of the United States publicly deciding German’s energy policy. And these implications are a death sentence to NATO and the USA as I will discuss in “NordStream: Germany Owned”.